Late Innings

The Tigers’ Opening Day starter regressed slightly last year, after winning 35 games his first two years of his career. His fastball tailed off last year, to an average speed of 93.6 MPH (after being around 95 MPH the first two seasons.) Could that be the reason why his WHIP was high (1.40) or that his BABIP (.305) was its highest it has been in his career?

2009 Projection: 13 W, 210.0 IP, 3.85 ERA, 65 BB (2.78 BB/9), 175 K (7.50 K/9), 1.31 WHIP

Verlander was a fourth round pick in many fantasy drafts last year, and he disappointed in all formats. I’ve seen him go in the fourteenth round (on average) in some drafts. In other words, Verlander is a solid buy low candidate. Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland is impressed with what he’s seeing from his ace this Spring.

The Tigers, if kept the way they are, should be a team that scores around 800 runs, and wins about 83 games, even with the pitching staff in disarray as it is. However a fire sale (due to the poor economy) would change everything. If that happens, the wins and offense in Detroit would take a hit, and that would in turn suppress the number of wins that Verlander will achieve in 2009.