Late Innings

I haven’t written here in a while. It’s a long story, no doubt. However I wanted to discuss one of my most favorite topics, the MLB Amateur Draft. I know to some people like Keith Law and John Sickels, today is a national holiday for them (actually it’s more of a weekend, given the three days of the draft.) For me, it’s another day of drinking, though not as excessive as Flag Day.

Anyone with their right mind knew that the Nationals were going to take Stephen Strasburg, it’s a given. And we are all ready to watch the contract negotiations unfold with Scott Boras in the picture. My popcorn is ready. The Mariners took UNC 1B/CF Dustin Ackley with the obvious #2 pick. Honestly I would have liked to see him fall down to the #5 spot (which the Orioles had), but he was clearly the best hitter in the draft. And with Scott Boras as his “advisor", like Strasburg he could easily command 10MM in guaranteed money. I saw Ackley play this weekend Sunday against South Carolina, and liked what I saw. Great batting eye, great defense (especially when he moves back to CF after the injury heals), however it might take some time for his power to develop.

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The first four picks of the draft were rightly predicted, however the Orioles surprised me by taking Matt Hobgood. From what people are writing, he’s a big kid who’s projected to be a power pitcher in the late innings. The Orioles could have taken Zack Wheeler (as I expected), but I think signability played a role here. Baltimore’s system is loaded with young pitching, but Wheeler would have fit nicely (in the big leagues by 2012.) San Fransisco immediately took him with the next pick (and he looks nice with Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson in the system as well.)

If Baltimore hadn’t taken Wheeler, I thought about (UNC SS) Grant Green as a possibility, but then he didn’t fit the mold as a typical defensive shortstop that Andy MacPhail wants. I really would have liked them to get Wheeler, and I’m curious to know the motivations why he wasn’t picked. From what Rich Lederer wrote in today’s live blog:

Hopgood was named the 2009 Gatorade Baseball Player of the Year yesterday. He is a big bodied pitcher who can also hit. Baltimore clearly liked him better than any other team. He is committed to Cal State Fullerton but is likely to be a fairly easy sign at this spot.

Still him and Marc Hulet were just as surprised as I was. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t question Joe Jordan, whose done an excellent job as the scouting director for the Orioles in the past four years, but this move has me scratching my head.

Then again the economy clearly played a role here. I’ve never before seen so many high school arms seeking Rick Porcello money (a bad precedent the minute it was set by Detroit.) But then again that didn’t stop many teams today, especially Detroit (again), who took Justin Turner at the #9 spot (and he could command 7MM by the August 17th deadline.)

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Now back to the main story, the Nats took Strasburg. What would it take to sign him? I’d offer him 15MM right off the bat and leave the offer on the table. That’s what everyone is expecting, and I feel that it is clearly fair. He won’t get 50MM (sorry Jon, Boras Corporation contractor), not in this economy. There have been stories galore leading up to today which shown the #1 pitching picks from years back… the best of the bunch was Andy Benes, a mediocre Padres pitcher who compiled a .500 winning percentage in his career. His brother Alan also pitched in the National League, and like his brother was a .500 pitcher (29-28 over eight seasons.)

Outside of Strasburg, we might see Ackley get 10MM, and I think that’s a strong possibility. Still, in looking at this draft, it was clearly top heavy. Last year’s draft showcased more pure hitters, while this one showcased tons of high school arms. Still I expect most of these players to wait until the last minute to sign, like last season. Granted some first round picks from last year signed quickly, like Buster Posey (Giants), Tim Beckham (Rays) and Kyle Skipworth (Marlins.) This year might be different. I expect the Pirates to sign Tony Sanchez quickly, and the same thing goes with the Orioles and Hobgood. Maybe that’s a good thing, since Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters waited until the 11th hour to sign in years past. Hopefully he’ll sign quickly and will be playing ball in the rookie leagues by Summer’s end.