Late Innings

I’ve been following the Roy Halladay sweepstakes closely. Today, the Blue Jays rejected an offer for their ace by the Phillies. As per MLBTR:

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that the Blue Jays have rejected the Phillies latest offer of Carrasco, Donald, J.A. Happ and outfielder Michael Taylor.

The Angels are out of it as well apparently:

(The Angels) were of the mind to remove themselves from the Roy Halladay talks, believing they were never going to come close to the Blue Jays’ asking price of Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar, Brandon Wood and a prospect such as outfielder Peter Bourjos.

The Blue Jays want both Joba and Phil Hughes in any trade with the Yankkes. And we have yet to see what the Brewers (the “darkhorse") are going to offer. With the non-waiver trading deadline a few days away, the Jays need to bring their demands. Take this offer that the Jays sent to Ruben Amaro Jr. for example: Kyle Drabek, Happ, and Dominic Brown. As BTBS points out, this trade would have gave the Jays a 36MM return on their investment. Yikes.

I know the Phillies want him, and the Jays have no reason to keep him. And I understand that going back to the World Series would be nice for the Phillies. But the Jays need to come down on their demands. Even if it’s ever so slightly.

In case anyone was living under a rock today, Matt Holliday was traded today, from the A’s to the Cardinals. Billy Beane and Co. receive a plethora of prospects.

Packing your bags for Big Mac land. (AP Photo)

I thought about this trade deep and hard, like a porn star would. Any ways the following is my (albeit drunken) analysis of this blockbuster… initially off the bat I thought this was a win for the A’s. Heck I thought the Brett Wallace swap for Holliday was a steal for the A’s, but Beane also got two prospects as well, a potential 4th outfielder and a potential 4th starter.

Now Wallace, that had me scratching my head… coming into the season, Sickels gave him an A- rating in his list of top 20 Cardinals prospects. He’s got good talent, but he’s clearly regressed. He might not be fit for long term at third (got Hillary Clinton thighs), and is probably going to be shifted across the diamond. He is major-league ready, but is clearly blocked behind some dude named Albert. He’ll fit in well in Oakland.

If he hits better than another St. Louis prodigy to come to Oakland (e.g. Daric Barton), then this deal is a win for the A’s. Using the Victor Wang chart I’ve alluded to yesterday, Wallace is going to be worth something close to 20MM over the course of his tenure as an A. In other words this is an easy win for Beane. Now if Wallace hits super-stardom, then this is grand theft. For the meantime though, I like this deal for the Cards. He makes Albert and Tony happy, adds some punch to their lineup, and can be used to grab a couple draft picks in next year’s draft (assuming they offer the free agent arbitration and he declines.) In the long term though, I like Oakland… actually this trade is an easy win for the A’s.

Now with the Cardinals upgrading their team, will the Brewers trade for Roy Halladay? Any ways back to drinking…

Yesterday a post surfaced by Dave Cameron on FanGraphs.com about an acquisition that Tampa Bay should definitely make:

Thankfully, there’s this guy named Cliff Lee who the Indians would be willing to part with for the right offer. He’s really good, and he’s not just a rental player - he’d help you in 2009 and 2010. You have a remarkably deep farm system, overflowing with talented guys you don’t have room for. You have guys like Reid Brignac, Matt Joyce, Wade Davis, and now Jeremy Hellickson in Triple-A. You have Willy Aybar on the bench. Your outfield is overcrowded, but someone is going to have to go to make room for Desmond Jennings eventually. You have talent to spare.

Now, as of this afternoon from FOX, the Rays and the Indians are definitely trying to make something happen:

The Rays and Indians have discussed a trade that would send Cleveland ace Cliff Lee to Tampa Bay, major league sources said, but the sides didn’t appear close to a deal as of late Wednesday evening. Indians general manager Mark Shapiro is asking for multiple high-end prospects in return for the left-hander. He is believed to prefer right-hander Wade Davis as the primary chip in the deal. So far, the Rays have balked at including him.

Lee is making 6MM this year, and 9MM in his 2010 team option year (it went up 1MM since he won the Cy Young award last year.) He was worth 7.3 WAR last year, or roughly 32MM while making 4MM. A nifty surplus of 28MM for Mark Shapiro and the Indians last year indeed.

Lee is on pace for a 6.5 WAR season, and already at 4.0 WAR, he should be worth roughly 14MM the rest of the way. Assuming he is a 6 WAR player next year, he should be worth roughly 40MM the remainder of his contract. Now if Tampa Bay takes on Lee, would Davis be too much of a cost to pay?

Using the super-cool BTBS Trade Value Calculator and some knowledge about prospects, Davis should only be worth about 15MM, or roughly one third of Lee’s value. Brignac, maybe 7MM. Throw in a couple of B/C level pitching prospects (who don’t have the last name of Hellickson), and we have a very good deal for the Rays. Friedman should definitely pull the trigger…

I can understand why Tampa Bay is hesitant about including Davis, the team’s top pitching prospect currently not in their rotation (e.g. David Price.) He’s obviously gun shy, since Jackson and Hammel are doing very fine jobs having rotation spots elsewhere. The Rays are in the playoff hunt, and Lee is talented, affordable, and could net them two draft picks once he leaves at the end of 2010 as a free agent. As Cameron states, Lee and the Rays would be a perfect fit. Now if they can just roll the dice and let go of some of their (very good) talent to do it.

Do you read FanGraphs?…

11:26 PM: Man this was a brisk game. And I’m so glad that Carl Crawford got the MVP award… I think I reverse-engineered their formula for choosing the MVP. Take the two teams in the previous world series, and give it to the best player on the winning league’s team. Seriously, J.D. Drew strangely enough got it last year… any ways I’m going to bed. Good game.

11:15 PM: Mo is on to close this puppy out. Prediction: the MVP goes to either Mo, Papelbon, or Youk. I’ll bet your mom’s virginity on it.

11:13 PM: What a catch by Jayson Werth… wow.

11:08 PM: Wow, Joe Nathan blew the string out good outs (18) by the AL pitching staff. With two on base, let’s see if this game can go into extra innings, just like last year’s marathon.

11:02 PM: My personal fave Adam Jones knocked in the go-ahead run with a sac fly. If the AL wins this, will he be given the game MVP trophy? Granted, keep in mind that he doesn’t play for the Yankees or Red Sox… like with what happened last year with George Sherrill.

Earlier: I was at Texas Roadhouse watching most of this… some thoughts I have. Why weren’t Zack Grienke and Dan Haren the starters? I can understand that it’s being a toss-up between Haren and “the Freak” in the NL, but in the AL Grienke clearly has had more dominant numbers. I guess people don’t want to see Royals and Diamondbacks starters…

…Speaking of Roy Halladay, it was interesting to hear Ken Rostenthal go through some rumors tonight as to where he would land. He’s suggesting that Halladay will be traded, going either to the Phillies or Yankees. I thought the Yankees couldn’t take on more payroll. And I wonder what prospects they’d have to surrender. The Yankees don’t have the pitching prospects that the Jays crave, unless they give up their original “big three", that is Kennedy, Hughes and the six pound, eight ounce baby Joba.

…Not a big fan of the Obama fellow in office now. I hate his policies, but I love the fact that he’s a baseball fan. It was cool to see him in the press box. Joe Buck’s voice makes people commit suicide, but it was still cool seeing this. …Now his first pitch? Not impressed. It had no heat on it. Then again, if it did, he’d tell it to cool down. It’s letting off too many carbon emissions.

I’m watching the Home Run Derby and have been so far disappointed. Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder looked ok, then came Brandon Inge who drew the collar. The AL doesn’t have the best crushers out tonight, and I know many of them turn down the invitation due to superstition and such. However this game benefits charity, and the more home runs that are hit, the more that is donated. I never considered Inge much of a masher. He puts up 20 home run seasons, and I give him credit for doing so at Comerica, but he didn’t look good this evening. On that note, be glad that Ichiro turned down the invitation.

Hey, your’s truly will be live-blogging tomorrow’s All Star Game held in St. Louis. I’ve did this before, and the results were interesting. I got my case of beer ready.

Man, Chris Berman’s voice is annoying as ever tonight.

Watch the 2009 All Star Game Tuesday July 14th at 8PM EST on FOX.

Update: In case anyone didn’t notice, the Mets traded for Francoeur. This is just as bad as me hooking up with a 300 lb. girl with six kids.

Keep in mind that I’ve been drinking tonight, and I joked about Jeff Francoeur being traded earlier in the day, after that strange Betancourt deal went down. But still. Wow.

What the fuck is Omar Minaya thinking? Either that or I need some more Blue Moon.

This trade is causing me to scratch my head:

Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt was traded to Kansas City on Friday, giving the Royals a versatile infielder and Seattle a pair of minor league pitchers.

The 27-year-old Betancourt was hitting .250 with two homers and 22 RBIs in 63 games this season. He’s been on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Tacoma after straining his left hamstring, and will continue rehabbing at Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

The main pitcher that the Mariners got from the Royals of interest was pitching prospect Daniel Cortes, whom has been ranked as the team’s top pitching prospect by Baseball America and has third-starter potential. The other arm is a High-A throw-in, who throws hard enough to miss many bats. But why Kansas City has been after him for years has boggled my mind. What’s next, them acquiring Jeff Francoeur?

Betancourt’s .250/.278/.330 line is uninspiring, and his defense has been spotty this year, particularly his range. But as Shyster so cleverly puts it:

The Royals are probably the only team to which Betancourt could have gone and represented an upgrade at short.

I sure as hell hope that the Mariners are throwing the Royals some salary relief, since Betancourt is owed 10MM for the remainder of his contract. Great move by the M’s; Ronny Cedeno finally gets his chance to become the full time #6 spot on the diamond.